LS season through September 1, a total of 235 games.
It seems very logical that the team that holds the possession advantage has a greater chance of scoring more goals, and thus winning the game. The fact that a team cannot score without having possession of the ball lends itself to this conclusion. However, the numbers suggest something else.
After gathering data for all 235 regular season games (of which 68 were draws), we noticed that more games have actually been won viagra canadian pharmacy by the team that had less possession. This is true across all margins of victory (victories of 1-4 goals).
2009-2010 UEFA Champions League. They defeated the champions of the English, Spanish and German leagues en route to their trophy. In the final against Bayern Munich, Inter Milan had the ball for only 30 percent of the game, yet still won 2-0. Inter had even less of the ball in their two-leg semifinal against Barcelona (they held the ball for just 21.5 percent of the two matches), yet still managed to win 3-2 on aggregate. While Inter’s Champions League run may be a bit on the extreme side, our study — along with others before it — shows it’s much closer to the norm than one might think.One possible explanation for the above data is that teams that emphasize the counter attack are more successful than their attacking counterparts. However, one cannot assume this to be true for all teams. Teams that simply rely on counter-attacking and not creating their own offensive opportunities cannot be expected to consistently succeed. Every team needs an offense for when they are behind, as well as a defense to hold their lead.
A more likely explanation is that certain teams have more efficient networks than others, which allow them to score more often while having the ball. At Chimu, we aim to map each team’s network, and see exactly how these teams are able to score, and whether their success can be consistently replicated given the right players and the right circumstances.
So rather than having the ball for a majority of the time, it might be more important to have the right pieces in place at the right time. The team’s chances of success would then fall on their ability to reproduce these situations in which they have proven to score most often. And from a defensive standpoint, it becomes easier to defend against a team once you know how, and from where, they are most likely to score.
What do you think explains the lack of correlation between an advantage in possession and winning? Would you like to see a network analysis that would show how teams could be more efficient with the ball? Feel free to comment below.